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CHEAP Full-frame 24.5MP Nikon DSLR - Due Date

 
 
Dr James Wajad, PhD
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      12-30-2008, 04:07 AM
There is a need for a CHEAP Full-frame 24.5MP Nikon
DSLR. The D3X is expensive. Nikon knows all this.

The question is, when will Nikon release such a great
camera (be it called the D800, D700X, D900..). It may
be possible to estimate when, since there is a proven
pattern to the timing of Nikon's DSLR releases.

Below I have tabulated all Nikon's DSLRs in the order
of their official announcement dates. The table's
columns are:
* Category (A = FX Pro, B = FX SemiPro, C = DX Pro,
D = DX Pro High Speed, E = DX SemiPro, F = DX Mid
range, G = DX Low range).
* Model.
* Official announcement date (YY/MM/DD).
* Predecessor Model. Within a category, this must be
the last released model. If it is the first model in
a category, a subjective choice is made. The only two
that are controversial is whether the predecessor of
the D700 is the D3 or the D300 (I chose the D3, but
since the D3 and D300 were announced on the same date
it does not matter to the calculations) and whether
the predecessor of the D100 is the D1 or the D1X (I
chose the D1X because of resolution, but this is so
long ago that it does not affect the calculations).
* Number of whole months between the announcements of
the model and its predecessor.

C D1 99/06/16 -- --
C D1X 01/02/05 D1 20
D D1H 01/02/05 D1 20
E D100 02/02/21 D1X 12
D D2H 02/07/22 D1H 17
F D70 04/01/28 D100 23
C D2X 04/09/16 D1X 43
D D2Hs 05/02/16 D2H 31
F D70s 05/04/20 D70 15
G D50 05/04/20 D70 15
E D200 05/11/01 D100 44
C D2Xs 06/06/01 D2X 20
F D80 06/08/09 D70s 16
G D40 06/11/16 D50 19
G D40x 07/03/06 D40 04
A D3 07/08/23 D2Xs 15
E D300 07/08/23 D200 22
G D60 08/01/29 D40x 11
B D700 08/07/01 D3 10
F D90 08/08/27 D80 25
A D3X 08/12/01 D3 15

From these data we can calculate the linear trend in
the number of months to wait before a superseding
model arrives. The regression line is downwards, with
equation: Months = 24.4 - 0.43 * ReleaseNumber where
ReleaseNumber is 1 for the D1X, 2 for the D1H etc. If
we include the data for the D40X, which came very
quickly after the D40, the prediction is for a 14
month interval between the D800 and its predecessor:

B D800 09/09/01 D700 14

If we exclude data for the D40X, the prediction is
for a 15 month interval, so the change is small:

B D800 09/09/30 D700 15

It can be argued that the best predecessor for an FX
SemiPro model in high resolution would be the FX
Pro model in that resolution, the D3X, and not the
previous FX SemiPro model, the D700. If so, you
will be waiting longer for the D800:

B D800 10/02/28 D3X 15

CONCLUSION

Ignoring the effects of market pressures, I predict
that the full-frame, 24.5MP Nikon SemiPro DSLR (D800,
D700X or D900) to be officially announced either in
August-October 2009 or February 2010.

The above is for entertainment purposes only and all
liability arising from it is specifically disclaimed.
This said, I am never wrong.

Dr James Wajad, PhD
Info-Wars 2002 LLC
http://www.infoDESPAMMEDwars.com/~wajad
email- (E-Mail Removed)


 
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Noons
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      12-30-2008, 04:20 AM
On Dec 30, 3:07*pm, "Dr James Wajad, PhD"
<(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:

> CONCLUSION
>
> Ignoring the effects of market pressures, I predict
> that the full-frame, 24.5MP Nikon SemiPro DSLR (D800,
> D700X or D900) to be officially announced either in
> August-October 2009 or February 2010.


Sincerely hope you are right...
A few high quality, wide open primes wouldn't hurt either.
Preferably WITH an aperture ring, instead of the G stuff.


> The above is for entertainment purposes only and all
> liability arising from it is specifically disclaimed.
> This said, I am never wrong.


LOL!
 
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measekite
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      12-30-2008, 05:37 AM
On Tue, 30 Dec 2008 04:07:02 +0000, Dr James Wajad, PhD wrote:

> There is a need for a CHEAP Full-frame 24.5MP Nikon
> DSLR. The D3X is expensive. Nikon knows all this.
>
> The question is, when will Nikon release such a great
> camera (be it called the D800, D700X, D900..). It may
> be possible to estimate when, since there is a proven
> pattern to the timing of Nikon's DSLR releases.


Here is your answer: I GUESS

Canon has the 1Ds and the 1Dsmkii that I expect both to be replaced by
the coming 1Dsmkii and the 5Dmkii.

Currently Nikon has the D3, D3x, and the D700. I expect the next rev
would be the D800 followed by the D4 with the current D3 falling by the
wayside. I expect the D800 to have the same sensor as the D3x at 24mp and
the D4 approaching 30mp

>
> Below I have tabulated all Nikon's DSLRs in the order of their official
> announcement dates. The table's columns are: * Category (A = FX Pro, B =
> FX SemiPro, C = DX Pro, D = DX Pro High Speed, E = DX SemiPro, F = DX
> Mid range, G = DX Low range). * Model. * Official announcement date
> (YY/MM/DD). * Predecessor Model. Within a category, this must be the
> last released model. If it is the first model in a category, a
> subjective choice is made. The only two that are controversial is
> whether the predecessor of the D700 is the D3 or the D300 (I chose the
> D3, but since the D3 and D300 were announced on the same date it does
> not matter to the calculations) and whether the predecessor of the D100
> is the D1 or the D1X (I chose the D1X because of resolution, but this is
> so long ago that it does not affect the calculations). * Number of whole
> months between the announcements of the model and its predecessor.
>
> C D1 99/06/16 -- --
> C D1X 01/02/05 D1 20
> D D1H 01/02/05 D1 20
> E D100 02/02/21 D1X 12
> D D2H 02/07/22 D1H 17
> F D70 04/01/28 D100 23
> C D2X 04/09/16 D1X 43
> D D2Hs 05/02/16 D2H 31
> F D70s 05/04/20 D70 15
> G D50 05/04/20 D70 15
> E D200 05/11/01 D100 44
> C D2Xs 06/06/01 D2X 20
> F D80 06/08/09 D70s 16
> G D40 06/11/16 D50 19
> G D40x 07/03/06 D40 04
> A D3 07/08/23 D2Xs 15
> E D300 07/08/23 D200 22
> G D60 08/01/29 D40x 11
> B D700 08/07/01 D3 10
> F D90 08/08/27 D80 25
> A D3X 08/12/01 D3 15
>
> From these data we can calculate the linear trend in the number of
> months to wait before a superseding model arrives. The regression line
> is downwards, with equation: Months = 24.4 - 0.43 * ReleaseNumber where
> ReleaseNumber is 1 for the D1X, 2 for the D1H etc. If we include the
> data for the D40X, which came very quickly after the D40, the prediction
> is for a 14 month interval between the D800 and its predecessor:
>
> B D800 09/09/01 D700 14
>
> If we exclude data for the D40X, the prediction is for a 15 month
> interval, so the change is small:
>
> B D800 09/09/30 D700 15
>
> It can be argued that the best predecessor for an FX SemiPro model in
> high resolution would be the FX Pro model in that resolution, the D3X,
> and not the previous FX SemiPro model, the D700. If so, you will be
> waiting longer for the D800:
>
> B D800 10/02/28 D3X 15
>
> CONCLUSION
>
> Ignoring the effects of market pressures, I predict that the full-frame,
> 24.5MP Nikon SemiPro DSLR (D800, D700X or D900) to be officially
> announced either in August-October 2009 or February 2010.
>
> The above is for entertainment purposes only and all liability arising
> from it is specifically disclaimed. This said, I am never wrong.
>
> Dr James Wajad, PhD
> Info-Wars 2002 LLC
> http://www.infoDESPAMMEDwars.com/~wajad email-
> (E-Mail Removed)

 
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measekite
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      12-30-2008, 05:38 AM
On Mon, 29 Dec 2008 20:20:20 -0800, Noons wrote:

> On Dec 30, 3:07┬*pm, "Dr James Wajad, PhD"
> <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:
>
>> CONCLUSION
>>
>> Ignoring the effects of market pressures, I predict
>> that the full-frame, 24.5MP Nikon SemiPro DSLR (D800,
>> D700X or D900) to be officially announced either in
>> August-October 2009 or February 2010.

>
> Sincerely hope you are right...
> A few high quality, wide open primes wouldn't hurt either.
> Preferably WITH an aperture ring, instead of the G stuff.


Why don;t you like the G stuff in an electronic camera?
>
>
>> The above is for entertainment purposes only and all
>> liability arising from it is specifically disclaimed.
>> This said, I am never wrong.

>
> LOL!

 
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Noons
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      12-30-2008, 05:47 AM
On Dec 30, 4:38*pm, measekite <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:

> > Preferably WITH an aperture ring, instead of the G stuff.

>
> Why don;t you like the G stuff in an electronic camera?


I don't like the G stuff in a lens. Couldn't
care less about the electronic camera.
 
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Paul Furman
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      12-30-2008, 06:20 AM
Dr James Wajad, PhD wrote:

> E D200 05/11/01 D100 44
> F D80 06/08/09 D70s 16


Above is the data that I really noticed. One month after I bought a
D200, the D80 came out (same sensor & viewfinder) which left me feeling
a bit screwed as I was upgrading from a D70 and was perfectly happy with
that till I smashed it on a rock <g>. As it happens I'm very happy with
my purchase but I was a bit peeved at the time. I just got a D700 and if
they release a full frame D90x next week...

:-)


> CONCLUSION
>
> Ignoring the effects of market pressures, I predict
> that the full-frame, 24.5MP Nikon SemiPro DSLR (D800,
> D700X or D900) to be officially announced either in
> August-October 2009 or February 2010.
>
> The above is for entertainment purposes only and all
> liability arising from it is specifically disclaimed.
> This said, I am never wrong.


Sounds about right. Although given the same data for my situation we
might predict a D700 sensor in the D90x umm... a few months ago...

--
Paul Furman
www.edgehill.net
www.baynatives.com

all google groups messages filtered due to spam
 
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Paul Furman
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      12-30-2008, 06:28 AM
Noons wrote:
> On Dec 30, 4:38 pm, measekite <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote:
>
>>> Preferably WITH an aperture ring, instead of the G stuff.

>> Why don;t you like the G stuff in an electronic camera?

>
> I don't like the G stuff in a lens. Couldn't
> care less about the electronic camera.


I don't either but it won't change and it does make more sense to
control aperture by the wheel on the body. D and AiP lenses make you do
that anyways, only older Ai lenses work properly on a bellows. What I
like about Ai lenses is you presumably already have your hand on the
barrel to focus and the aperture ring lets you blindly adjust feeling
the ends & clicks. D lenses have to be set to f/22 then the dial on the
body controls them, you don't touch the aperture ring unless it's on a
bellows (or Canon body).

--
Paul Furman
www.edgehill.net
www.baynatives.com

all google groups messages filtered due to spam
 
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John McWilliams
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      12-30-2008, 06:44 AM
measekite wrote:
> On Mon, 29 Dec 2008 20:20:20 -0800, Noons wrote:


>> A few high quality, wide open primes wouldn't hurt either.
>> Preferably WITH an aperture ring, instead of the G stuff.

>
> Why don;t you like the G stuff in an electronic camera?


Please trim replies, and don't xpost into aus.photo.
 
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Noons
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      12-30-2008, 10:44 AM
Paul Furman wrote,on my timestamp of 30/12/2008 5:28 PM:

>> I don't like the G stuff in a lens. Couldn't
>> care less about the electronic camera.

>
> I don't either but it won't change and it does make more sense to
> control aperture by the wheel on the body.


Actually, it does not. That was Nikon and other makers just being
silly with the "me too" against Canon. There is not a single
long time Nikon user that likes that wheel stuff.
And if it does not change, I'll simply buy lenses from other
makers who provide them and stuff Nikon.

> D and AiP lenses make you do
> that anyways, only older Ai lenses work properly on a bellows.


And Ai-S.

> What I
> like about Ai lenses is you presumably already have your hand on the
> barrel to focus and the aperture ring lets you blindly adjust feeling
> the ends & clicks. D lenses have to be set to f/22 then the dial on the
> body controls them, you don't touch the aperture ring unless it's on a
> bellows (or Canon body).



Have you ever managed to turn both the shutter and aperture wheels
at the same time while still holding the camera steady?
Nothing could be easier with an aperture ring. And the whole
argument that it is "cheaper to make" simply doesn't hold water:
the iris still needs to be closed precisely and timely, you now need
an analog-digital converter to make sure the thing is operating
properly as well as a servo to actuate it fast enough. None of
those come for free and are a LOT more expensive than a simple metal
ring that is made by the millions.

What really happened is someone at Nikon woke up to the fact
Canon users were buying Nikkors to use them on their cameras.
And since that didn't sell any Nikon bodies - where they make
the REAL profit - they came up with the "cheaper to make"
fantasy.

Until the day someone with enough brains or inside info gets
to reverse engineer the selection electronics and then it'll
be back to square one. Minus of course the current Nikon users
who would have bought proper lenses from somewhere else.

Ah well, let's not stop Nikon from shooting themselves
in the foot: it's in their nature, why interfere?

 
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Noons
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      12-30-2008, 10:47 AM
Atheist Chaplain wrote,on my timestamp of 30/12/2008 7:03 PM:
> "John McWilliams" <(E-Mail Removed)> wrote in message
>>
>> Please trim replies, and don't xpost into aus.photo.

>
> Now I know why I had you in my original kill file, your a ****ing tosser
> and a net Nazi to boot!!
>
> Maybe you need a good blow job to help relieve you of some of your pent
> up frustration, what's the matter, didn't you get into the police force
> because you failed the psych test, or did your habit of pulling the
> wings off flies and then setting them on fire preclude you from polite
> society.
>
> Oh and rant away all you like, because your going back into a nice shiny
> new bozo bin and I won't have to see it.




Chaplain! I'm shocked, mate! What happened?

BTW: have a great NY!
 
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CHEAP Full-frame 24.5MP Nikon DSLR - Due Date Dr James Wajad, PhD Nikon 1 12-31-2008 06:05 AM