There is a need for a CHEAP Full-frame 24.5MP Nikon

DSLR. The D3X is expensive. Nikon knows all this.

The question is, when will Nikon release such a great

camera (be it called the D800, D700X, D900..). It may

be possible to estimate when, since there is a proven

pattern to the timing of Nikon's DSLR releases.

Below I have tabulated all Nikon's DSLRs in the order

of their official announcement dates. The table's

columns are:

* Category (A = FX Pro, B = FX SemiPro, C = DX Pro,

D = DX Pro High Speed, E = DX SemiPro, F = DX Mid

range, G = DX Low range).

* Model.

* Official announcement date (YY/MM/DD).

* Predecessor Model. Within a category, this must be

the last released model. If it is the first model in

a category, a subjective choice is made. The only two

that are controversial is whether the predecessor of

the D700 is the D3 or the D300 (I chose the D3, but

since the D3 and D300 were announced on the same date

it does not matter to the calculations) and whether

the predecessor of the D100 is the D1 or the D1X (I

chose the D1X because of resolution, but this is so

long ago that it does not affect the calculations).

* Number of whole months between the announcements of

the model and its predecessor.

C D1 99/06/16 -- --

C D1X 01/02/05 D1 20

D D1H 01/02/05 D1 20

E D100 02/02/21 D1X 12

D D2H 02/07/22 D1H 17

F D70 04/01/28 D100 23

C D2X 04/09/16 D1X 43

D D2Hs 05/02/16 D2H 31

F D70s 05/04/20 D70 15

G D50 05/04/20 D70 15

E D200 05/11/01 D100 44

C D2Xs 06/06/01 D2X 20

F D80 06/08/09 D70s 16

G D40 06/11/16 D50 19

G D40x 07/03/06 D40 04

A D3 07/08/23 D2Xs 15

E D300 07/08/23 D200 22

G D60 08/01/29 D40x 11

B D700 08/07/01 D3 10

F D90 08/08/27 D80 25

A D3X 08/12/01 D3 15

From these data we can calculate the linear trend in

the number of months to wait before a superseding

model arrives. The regression line is downwards, with

equation: Months = 24.4 - 0.43 * ReleaseNumber where

ReleaseNumber is 1 for the D1X, 2 for the D1H etc. If

we include the data for the D40X, which came very

quickly after the D40, the prediction is for a 14

month interval between the D800 and its predecessor:

B D800 09/09/01 D700 14

If we exclude data for the D40X, the prediction is

for a 15 month interval, so the change is small:

B D800 09/09/30 D700 15

It can be argued that the best predecessor for an FX

SemiPro model in high resolution would be the FX

Pro model in that resolution, the D3X, and not the

previous FX SemiPro model, the D700. If so, you

will be waiting longer for the D800:

B D800 10/02/28 D3X 15

CONCLUSION

Ignoring the effects of market pressures, I predict

that the full-frame, 24.5MP Nikon SemiPro DSLR (D800,

D700X or D900) to be officially announced either in

August-October 2009 or February 2010.

The above is for entertainment purposes only and all

liability arising from it is specifically disclaimed.

This said, I am never wrong.

Dr James Wajad, PhD

Info-Wars 2002 LLC

http://www.infoDESPAMMEDwars.com/~wajad
email-

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