CHEAP Full-frame 24.5MP Nikon DSLR - Due Date

Discussion in 'Nikon' started by Dr James Wajad, PhD, Dec 30, 2008.

  1. There is a need for a CHEAP Full-frame 24.5MP Nikon
    DSLR. The D3X is expensive. Nikon knows all this.

    The question is, when will Nikon release such a great
    camera (be it called the D800, D700X, D900..). It may
    be possible to estimate when, since there is a proven
    pattern to the timing of Nikon's DSLR releases.

    Below I have tabulated all Nikon's DSLRs in the order
    of their official announcement dates. The table's
    columns are:
    * Category (A = FX Pro, B = FX SemiPro, C = DX Pro,
    D = DX Pro High Speed, E = DX SemiPro, F = DX Mid
    range, G = DX Low range).
    * Model.
    * Official announcement date (YY/MM/DD).
    * Predecessor Model. Within a category, this must be
    the last released model. If it is the first model in
    a category, a subjective choice is made. The only two
    that are controversial is whether the predecessor of
    the D700 is the D3 or the D300 (I chose the D3, but
    since the D3 and D300 were announced on the same date
    it does not matter to the calculations) and whether
    the predecessor of the D100 is the D1 or the D1X (I
    chose the D1X because of resolution, but this is so
    long ago that it does not affect the calculations).
    * Number of whole months between the announcements of
    the model and its predecessor.

    C D1 99/06/16 -- --
    C D1X 01/02/05 D1 20
    D D1H 01/02/05 D1 20
    E D100 02/02/21 D1X 12
    D D2H 02/07/22 D1H 17
    F D70 04/01/28 D100 23
    C D2X 04/09/16 D1X 43
    D D2Hs 05/02/16 D2H 31
    F D70s 05/04/20 D70 15
    G D50 05/04/20 D70 15
    E D200 05/11/01 D100 44
    C D2Xs 06/06/01 D2X 20
    F D80 06/08/09 D70s 16
    G D40 06/11/16 D50 19
    G D40x 07/03/06 D40 04
    A D3 07/08/23 D2Xs 15
    E D300 07/08/23 D200 22
    G D60 08/01/29 D40x 11
    B D700 08/07/01 D3 10
    F D90 08/08/27 D80 25
    A D3X 08/12/01 D3 15

    From these data we can calculate the linear trend in
    the number of months to wait before a superseding
    model arrives. The regression line is downwards, with
    equation: Months = 24.4 - 0.43 * ReleaseNumber where
    ReleaseNumber is 1 for the D1X, 2 for the D1H etc. If
    we include the data for the D40X, which came very
    quickly after the D40, the prediction is for a 14
    month interval between the D800 and its predecessor:

    B D800 09/09/01 D700 14

    If we exclude data for the D40X, the prediction is
    for a 15 month interval, so the change is small:

    B D800 09/09/30 D700 15

    It can be argued that the best predecessor for an FX
    SemiPro model in high resolution would be the FX
    Pro model in that resolution, the D3X, and not the
    previous FX SemiPro model, the D700. If so, you
    will be waiting longer for the D800:

    B D800 10/02/28 D3X 15

    CONCLUSION

    Ignoring the effects of market pressures, I predict
    that the full-frame, 24.5MP Nikon SemiPro DSLR (D800,
    D700X or D900) to be officially announced either in
    August-October 2009 or February 2010.

    The above is for entertainment purposes only and all
    liability arising from it is specifically disclaimed.
    This said, I am never wrong.

    Dr James Wajad, PhD
    Info-Wars 2002 LLC
    http://www.infoDESPAMMEDwars.com/~wajad
    email-
    Dr James Wajad, PhD, Dec 30, 2008
    #1
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  2. Dr James Wajad, PhD

    Noons Guest

    On Dec 30, 3:07 pm, "Dr James Wajad, PhD"
    <> wrote:

    > CONCLUSION
    >
    > Ignoring the effects of market pressures, I predict
    > that the full-frame, 24.5MP Nikon SemiPro DSLR (D800,
    > D700X or D900) to be officially announced either in
    > August-October 2009 or February 2010.


    Sincerely hope you are right...
    A few high quality, wide open primes wouldn't hurt either.
    Preferably WITH an aperture ring, instead of the G stuff.


    > The above is for entertainment purposes only and all
    > liability arising from it is specifically disclaimed.
    > This said, I am never wrong.


    LOL!
    Noons, Dec 30, 2008
    #2
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  3. Dr James Wajad, PhD

    measekite Guest

    On Tue, 30 Dec 2008 04:07:02 +0000, Dr James Wajad, PhD wrote:

    > There is a need for a CHEAP Full-frame 24.5MP Nikon
    > DSLR. The D3X is expensive. Nikon knows all this.
    >
    > The question is, when will Nikon release such a great
    > camera (be it called the D800, D700X, D900..). It may
    > be possible to estimate when, since there is a proven
    > pattern to the timing of Nikon's DSLR releases.


    Here is your answer: I GUESS

    Canon has the 1Ds and the 1Dsmkii that I expect both to be replaced by
    the coming 1Dsmkii and the 5Dmkii.

    Currently Nikon has the D3, D3x, and the D700. I expect the next rev
    would be the D800 followed by the D4 with the current D3 falling by the
    wayside. I expect the D800 to have the same sensor as the D3x at 24mp and
    the D4 approaching 30mp

    >
    > Below I have tabulated all Nikon's DSLRs in the order of their official
    > announcement dates. The table's columns are: * Category (A = FX Pro, B =
    > FX SemiPro, C = DX Pro, D = DX Pro High Speed, E = DX SemiPro, F = DX
    > Mid range, G = DX Low range). * Model. * Official announcement date
    > (YY/MM/DD). * Predecessor Model. Within a category, this must be the
    > last released model. If it is the first model in a category, a
    > subjective choice is made. The only two that are controversial is
    > whether the predecessor of the D700 is the D3 or the D300 (I chose the
    > D3, but since the D3 and D300 were announced on the same date it does
    > not matter to the calculations) and whether the predecessor of the D100
    > is the D1 or the D1X (I chose the D1X because of resolution, but this is
    > so long ago that it does not affect the calculations). * Number of whole
    > months between the announcements of the model and its predecessor.
    >
    > C D1 99/06/16 -- --
    > C D1X 01/02/05 D1 20
    > D D1H 01/02/05 D1 20
    > E D100 02/02/21 D1X 12
    > D D2H 02/07/22 D1H 17
    > F D70 04/01/28 D100 23
    > C D2X 04/09/16 D1X 43
    > D D2Hs 05/02/16 D2H 31
    > F D70s 05/04/20 D70 15
    > G D50 05/04/20 D70 15
    > E D200 05/11/01 D100 44
    > C D2Xs 06/06/01 D2X 20
    > F D80 06/08/09 D70s 16
    > G D40 06/11/16 D50 19
    > G D40x 07/03/06 D40 04
    > A D3 07/08/23 D2Xs 15
    > E D300 07/08/23 D200 22
    > G D60 08/01/29 D40x 11
    > B D700 08/07/01 D3 10
    > F D90 08/08/27 D80 25
    > A D3X 08/12/01 D3 15
    >
    > From these data we can calculate the linear trend in the number of
    > months to wait before a superseding model arrives. The regression line
    > is downwards, with equation: Months = 24.4 - 0.43 * ReleaseNumber where
    > ReleaseNumber is 1 for the D1X, 2 for the D1H etc. If we include the
    > data for the D40X, which came very quickly after the D40, the prediction
    > is for a 14 month interval between the D800 and its predecessor:
    >
    > B D800 09/09/01 D700 14
    >
    > If we exclude data for the D40X, the prediction is for a 15 month
    > interval, so the change is small:
    >
    > B D800 09/09/30 D700 15
    >
    > It can be argued that the best predecessor for an FX SemiPro model in
    > high resolution would be the FX Pro model in that resolution, the D3X,
    > and not the previous FX SemiPro model, the D700. If so, you will be
    > waiting longer for the D800:
    >
    > B D800 10/02/28 D3X 15
    >
    > CONCLUSION
    >
    > Ignoring the effects of market pressures, I predict that the full-frame,
    > 24.5MP Nikon SemiPro DSLR (D800, D700X or D900) to be officially
    > announced either in August-October 2009 or February 2010.
    >
    > The above is for entertainment purposes only and all liability arising
    > from it is specifically disclaimed. This said, I am never wrong.
    >
    > Dr James Wajad, PhD
    > Info-Wars 2002 LLC
    > http://www.infoDESPAMMEDwars.com/~wajad email-
    >
    measekite, Dec 30, 2008
    #3
  4. Dr James Wajad, PhD

    measekite Guest

    On Mon, 29 Dec 2008 20:20:20 -0800, Noons wrote:

    > On Dec 30, 3:07 pm, "Dr James Wajad, PhD"
    > <> wrote:
    >
    >> CONCLUSION
    >>
    >> Ignoring the effects of market pressures, I predict
    >> that the full-frame, 24.5MP Nikon SemiPro DSLR (D800,
    >> D700X or D900) to be officially announced either in
    >> August-October 2009 or February 2010.

    >
    > Sincerely hope you are right...
    > A few high quality, wide open primes wouldn't hurt either.
    > Preferably WITH an aperture ring, instead of the G stuff.


    Why don;t you like the G stuff in an electronic camera?
    >
    >
    >> The above is for entertainment purposes only and all
    >> liability arising from it is specifically disclaimed.
    >> This said, I am never wrong.

    >
    > LOL!
    measekite, Dec 30, 2008
    #4
  5. Dr James Wajad, PhD

    Noons Guest

    On Dec 30, 4:38 pm, measekite <> wrote:

    > > Preferably WITH an aperture ring, instead of the G stuff.

    >
    > Why don;t you like the G stuff in an electronic camera?


    I don't like the G stuff in a lens. Couldn't
    care less about the electronic camera.
    Noons, Dec 30, 2008
    #5
  6. Dr James Wajad, PhD

    Paul Furman Guest

    Dr James Wajad, PhD wrote:

    > E D200 05/11/01 D100 44
    > F D80 06/08/09 D70s 16


    Above is the data that I really noticed. One month after I bought a
    D200, the D80 came out (same sensor & viewfinder) which left me feeling
    a bit screwed as I was upgrading from a D70 and was perfectly happy with
    that till I smashed it on a rock <g>. As it happens I'm very happy with
    my purchase but I was a bit peeved at the time. I just got a D700 and if
    they release a full frame D90x next week...

    :)


    > CONCLUSION
    >
    > Ignoring the effects of market pressures, I predict
    > that the full-frame, 24.5MP Nikon SemiPro DSLR (D800,
    > D700X or D900) to be officially announced either in
    > August-October 2009 or February 2010.
    >
    > The above is for entertainment purposes only and all
    > liability arising from it is specifically disclaimed.
    > This said, I am never wrong.


    Sounds about right. Although given the same data for my situation we
    might predict a D700 sensor in the D90x umm... a few months ago...

    --
    Paul Furman
    www.edgehill.net
    www.baynatives.com

    all google groups messages filtered due to spam
    Paul Furman, Dec 30, 2008
    #6
  7. Dr James Wajad, PhD

    Paul Furman Guest

    Re: |GG| Re: CHEAP Full-frame 24.5MP Nikon DSLR - Due Date

    Noons wrote:
    > On Dec 30, 4:38 pm, measekite <> wrote:
    >
    >>> Preferably WITH an aperture ring, instead of the G stuff.

    >> Why don;t you like the G stuff in an electronic camera?

    >
    > I don't like the G stuff in a lens. Couldn't
    > care less about the electronic camera.


    I don't either but it won't change and it does make more sense to
    control aperture by the wheel on the body. D and AiP lenses make you do
    that anyways, only older Ai lenses work properly on a bellows. What I
    like about Ai lenses is you presumably already have your hand on the
    barrel to focus and the aperture ring lets you blindly adjust feeling
    the ends & clicks. D lenses have to be set to f/22 then the dial on the
    body controls them, you don't touch the aperture ring unless it's on a
    bellows (or Canon body).

    --
    Paul Furman
    www.edgehill.net
    www.baynatives.com

    all google groups messages filtered due to spam
    Paul Furman, Dec 30, 2008
    #7
  8. measekite wrote:
    > On Mon, 29 Dec 2008 20:20:20 -0800, Noons wrote:


    >> A few high quality, wide open primes wouldn't hurt either.
    >> Preferably WITH an aperture ring, instead of the G stuff.

    >
    > Why don;t you like the G stuff in an electronic camera?


    Please trim replies, and don't xpost into aus.photo.
    John McWilliams, Dec 30, 2008
    #8
  9. Dr James Wajad, PhD

    Noons Guest

    Re: |GG| Re: CHEAP Full-frame 24.5MP Nikon DSLR - Due Date

    Paul Furman wrote,on my timestamp of 30/12/2008 5:28 PM:

    >> I don't like the G stuff in a lens. Couldn't
    >> care less about the electronic camera.

    >
    > I don't either but it won't change and it does make more sense to
    > control aperture by the wheel on the body.


    Actually, it does not. That was Nikon and other makers just being
    silly with the "me too" against Canon. There is not a single
    long time Nikon user that likes that wheel stuff.
    And if it does not change, I'll simply buy lenses from other
    makers who provide them and stuff Nikon.

    > D and AiP lenses make you do
    > that anyways, only older Ai lenses work properly on a bellows.


    And Ai-S.

    > What I
    > like about Ai lenses is you presumably already have your hand on the
    > barrel to focus and the aperture ring lets you blindly adjust feeling
    > the ends & clicks. D lenses have to be set to f/22 then the dial on the
    > body controls them, you don't touch the aperture ring unless it's on a
    > bellows (or Canon body).



    Have you ever managed to turn both the shutter and aperture wheels
    at the same time while still holding the camera steady?
    Nothing could be easier with an aperture ring. And the whole
    argument that it is "cheaper to make" simply doesn't hold water:
    the iris still needs to be closed precisely and timely, you now need
    an analog-digital converter to make sure the thing is operating
    properly as well as a servo to actuate it fast enough. None of
    those come for free and are a LOT more expensive than a simple metal
    ring that is made by the millions.

    What really happened is someone at Nikon woke up to the fact
    Canon users were buying Nikkors to use them on their cameras.
    And since that didn't sell any Nikon bodies - where they make
    the REAL profit - they came up with the "cheaper to make"
    fantasy.

    Until the day someone with enough brains or inside info gets
    to reverse engineer the selection electronics and then it'll
    be back to square one. Minus of course the current Nikon users
    who would have bought proper lenses from somewhere else.

    Ah well, let's not stop Nikon from shooting themselves
    in the foot: it's in their nature, why interfere?
    :)
    Noons, Dec 30, 2008
    #9
  10. Dr James Wajad, PhD

    Noons Guest

    Atheist Chaplain wrote,on my timestamp of 30/12/2008 7:03 PM:
    > "John McWilliams" <> wrote in message
    >>
    >> Please trim replies, and don't xpost into aus.photo.

    >
    > Now I know why I had you in my original kill file, your a fucking tosser
    > and a net Nazi to boot!!
    >
    > Maybe you need a good blow job to help relieve you of some of your pent
    > up frustration, what's the matter, didn't you get into the police force
    > because you failed the psych test, or did your habit of pulling the
    > wings off flies and then setting them on fire preclude you from polite
    > society.
    >
    > Oh and rant away all you like, because your going back into a nice shiny
    > new bozo bin and I won't have to see it.




    Chaplain! I'm shocked, mate! What happened?
    :)
    BTW: have a great NY!
    Noons, Dec 30, 2008
    #10
  11. Dr James Wajad, PhD

    Noons Guest

    Mark Thomas wrote,on my timestamp of 30/12/2008 3:21 PM:
    > Dr James Wajad, PhD wrote:
    >> There...

    > (mathematical tripe snipped)
    >> This said, I am never wrong.

    > Well, you posted to the wrong groups, so that wasn't a good start.
    > And given that you have not, and do not, actually exist under that name,
    > how *could* you have been wrong, and why should anyone care?



    I'm shocked, Mark. All of a sudden YOU care about proper
    posting ids? What happened, police at your doortstep?
    LOL!
    Noons, Dec 30, 2008
    #11
  12. Dr James Wajad, PhD

    Dave Cohen Guest

    measekite wrote:
    > On Tue, 30 Dec 2008 04:07:02 +0000, Dr James Wajad, PhD wrote:
    >
    >> <snipped>

    >
    > Here is your answer: I GUESS
    >
    > Canon has the 1Ds and the 1Dsmkii that I expect both to be replaced by
    > the coming 1Dsmkii and the 5Dmkii.
    >
    > Currently Nikon has the D3, D3x, and the D700. I expect the next rev
    > would be the D800 followed by the D4 with the current D3 falling by the
    > wayside. I expect the D800 to have the same sensor as the D3x at 24mp and
    > the D4 approaching 30mp


    That won't do, the op is very specific, he wants 24.5mp, not 24mp.
    Dave Cohen
    >
    > >
    >> <more snipping>
    Dave Cohen, Dec 30, 2008
    #12
  13. Atheist Chaplain wrote:
    > "Noons" <> wrote in message
    > news:gjcu1m$pe0$...
    >> Atheist Chaplain wrote,on my timestamp of 30/12/2008 7:03 PM:
    >>> "John McWilliams" <> wrote in message
    >>>>
    >>>> Please trim replies, and don't xpost into aus.photo.
    >>>
    >>> Now I know why I had you in my original kill file, your a fucking
    >>> tosser and a net Nazi to boot!!
    >>>
    >>> Maybe you need a good blow job to help relieve you of some of your
    >>> pent up frustration, what's the matter, didn't you get into the
    >>> police force because you failed the psych test, or did your habit of
    >>> pulling the wings off flies and then setting them on fire preclude
    >>> you from polite society.
    >>>
    >>> Oh and rant away all you like, because your going back into a nice
    >>> shiny new bozo bin and I won't have to see it.

    >>
    >>
    >>
    >> Chaplain! I'm shocked, mate! What happened?
    >> :)
    >> BTW: have a great NY!

    >
    > Oh not much, I'm just owed about $8k by someone who thinks he doesn't
    > have to pay, and after a phone conversation this afternoon it looks like
    > the dogs are going to have to be let lose to remind them that work done
    > at their request is work that has to be paid for :)
    >
    > I will have a nice NY thanks :) and I hope you have a great one yourself, Douchebag.


    Many happy returns.
    John McWilliams, Dec 30, 2008
    #13
  14. Dr James Wajad, PhD

    Paul Furman Guest

    Noons wrote:
    > Paul Furman wrote,on my timestamp of 30/12/2008 5:28 PM:
    >
    >>> I don't like the G stuff in a lens. Couldn't
    >>> care less about the electronic camera.

    >>
    >> I don't either but it won't change and it does make more sense to
    >> control aperture by the wheel on the body.

    >
    > Actually, it does not. That was Nikon and other makers just being
    > silly with the "me too" against Canon. There is not a single
    > long time Nikon user that likes that wheel stuff.
    > And if it does not change, I'll simply buy lenses from other
    > makers who provide them and stuff Nikon.


    Nikon isn't going to change their design, it's been that way for I don't
    know how long, 15 years?

    <snip>

    --
    Paul Furman
    www.edgehill.net
    www.baynatives.com

    all google groups messages filtered due to spam
    Paul Furman, Dec 30, 2008
    #14
  15. Dr James Wajad, PhD

    Noons Guest

    On Dec 31, 6:04 am, Paul Furman <> wrote:

    >
    > Nikon isn't going to change their design, it's been that way for I don't
    > know how long, 15 years?


    How long is immaterial, Paul.
    And no, it is not 15 years, check your facts:
    exageration is not proof.
    Noons, Dec 31, 2008
    #15
  16. Dr James Wajad, PhD

    Noons Guest

    On Dec 30, 11:20 pm, "Atheist Chaplain" <> wrote:

    > Oh not much, I'm just owed about $8k by someone who thinks he doesn't have
    > to pay, and after a phone conversation this afternoon it looks like the dogs
    > are going to have to be let lose to remind them that work done at their
    > request is work that has to be paid for :)


    Faaaaark....
    Mate, you get stuck on them. I've found along the years that
    touchy-feely-feel-good stuff only delays the inevitable. If someone
    wrongs you, wrong them back or send them to court. Best way of
    handling that sort of stress. Works for me, anyway.
    AMP is going to find out about that as well,soon after the new year:
    6 weeks to handle a refinance? Ah yes: they're "all on hols".
    Strangely enough, I don't recall their debits from my account
    stopping,
    so apparently not everone was "on hols"...
    Two complaints with the ombudsman and a call to a barrister later
    we'll see what's cooking. They wanna play? Let's play!

    > I will have a nice NY thanks :) and I hope you have a great one yourself..


    Aw, you know: good old family bbq, then a stroll to
    Bayview to watch fireworks over Pittwater. Couldn't
    be bothered with the mess down South near Melbourne,
    I think they call it the Harbour Bridge?
    <g,d&r>
    Noons, Dec 31, 2008
    #16
  17. Dr James Wajad, PhD

    Noons Guest

    On Dec 31, 2:54 am, Alan Browne <>
    wrote:
    > Atheist Chaplain wrote:
    > > "John McWilliams" <> wrote in message
    > >news:gjcg00$oj8$...
    > >> measekite wrote:
    > >>> On Mon, 29 Dec 2008 20:20:20 -0800, Noons wrote:

    >
    > >>>> A few high quality, wide open primes wouldn't hurt either.
    > >>>> Preferably WITH an aperture ring, instead of the G stuff.

    >
    > >>> Why don;t you like the G stuff in an electronic camera?

    >
    > >> Please trim replies, and don't xpost into aus.photo.

    >
    > > Now I know why I had you in my original kill file, your a fucking tosser
    > > and a net Nazi to boot!!

    >
    > > Maybe you need a good blow job to help relieve you of some of your pent
    > > up frustration, what's the matter, didn't you get into the police force
    > > because you failed the psych test, or did your habit of pulling the
    > > wings off flies and then setting them on fire preclude you from polite
    > > society.

    >
    > > Oh and rant away all you like, because your going back into a nice shiny
    > > new bozo bin and I won't have to see it.

    >
    > *plonk*



    Let's hope you keep on that path forever: best way
    of making sure you'll be so far out of touch with reality
    you won't have a clue what's going on around you.
    Oh, hang on: it's already happening!
    Good!
    Noons, Dec 31, 2008
    #17
  18. Dr James Wajad, PhD

    Alan Meyer Guest

    "Atheist Chaplain" <> wrote in message
    news:-privat.org...
    >
    > .., I'm just owed about $8k by someone who thinks he doesn't have to pay,
    > and after a phone conversation this afternoon it looks like the dogs are
    > going to have to be let lose to remind them that work done at their
    > request is work that has to be paid for :)


    I once did a computer programming job for a company that
    didn't pay me. They told me one lie after another. Finally I
    threatened to send a letter to each of their clients telling the
    clients that they were getting services from a company that
    didn't pay its suppliers.

    That got their attention. The president of the company yelled
    and screamed at me and threatened to sue me for libel, but
    he paid my bill.

    I did the same thing twice on other contracts where the
    company that owed me money was a government contractor.
    I wrote letters to the government departments that contracted
    with them and said that they were getting software from
    a contractor who was not paying his subcontractors.

    In each case the government directed the contractor to
    pay and they did. They were pissed off, but they didn't
    dare stiff me.

    Good luck.
    Alan Meyer, Dec 31, 2008
    #18
  19. Dr James Wajad, PhD

    Annika1980 Guest

    On Dec 29, 11:07 pm, "Dr James Wajad, PhD"
    <> wrote:
    > There is a need for a CHEAP Full-frame 24.5MP Nikon
    > DSLR. The D3X is expensive. Nikon knows all this.
    >
    > The question is, when will Nikon release such a great
    > camera (be it called the D800, D700X, D900..).


    Look for a big announcement from Nikon on April 1.
    Annika1980, Dec 31, 2008
    #19
  20. Dr James Wajad, PhD

    measekite Guest

    On Mon, 29 Dec 2008 22:44:15 -0800, John McWilliams wrote:

    > measekite wrote:
    >> On Mon, 29 Dec 2008 20:20:20 -0800, Noons wrote:

    >
    >>> A few high quality, wide open primes wouldn't hurt either.
    >>> Preferably WITH an aperture ring, instead of the G stuff.

    >>
    >> Why don;t you like the G stuff in an electronic camera?

    >
    > Please trim replies, and don't xpost into aus.photo.


    When it makes sense and when it does not make sense you can complain but
    it will do you no good.
    measekite, Dec 31, 2008
    #20
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