Death of DVD?

Discussion in 'Professional Video Production' started by matt, Sep 4, 2003.

  1. matt

    matt Guest

    http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/nm/20030903/music_nm/media_piracy_dc_1

    Virtual Delivery Seen as Death to Discs
    Tue Sep 2,10:05 PM ET

    Add Entertainment - Reuters to My Yahoo!

    By Jesse Hiestand

    LOS ANGELES (Hollywood Reporter) - Hollywood will win the war against
    illegal downloading but the battlefield will be littered with
    casualties, including the DVD and CD formats as physical means of
    distributing video and audio, according to a Forrester Research study
    released Tuesday.

     

    The study predicts that in five years, CDs and DVDs will start to go
    the way of the vinyl LP as 33% of music sales and 19% of home video
    revenue shifts to streaming and downloading.


    Part of that stems from the continued proliferation of illegal file
    trading, which has caused an estimated $700 million of lost CD sales
    since 1999. But it will be due more so to efforts by the studios,
    cable companies and telcos to finally deliver legitimate alternatives
    like video-on-demand, Forrester researcher Josh Bernoff said.


    "The idea that anyone who has video-on-demand access to any movie they
    are interested in would get up and go to Blockbuster just doesn't make
    any sense," Bernoff said. "(The decline) begins with rentals, but
    eventually I think sales of these pieces of plastic are going to start
    going away because people will have access to whatever they want right
    there at their television set."


    While consumers with VOD capabilities should grow within five years
    from 10 million to 35 million, or about a third of all U.S. television
    households, the association that represents disc makers does not
    believe that output will slow.


    In fact, the Princeton, N.J.-based International Recording Media Assn.
    estimates that the number of DVDs replicated each year in North
    America will increase from a current 1.4 billion to 2.6 billion by
    2008.


    CD replications, though, are forecast by IRMA to fall by 15%-18% in
    the next five years, about half the rate of decline estimated by
    Forrester.


    "The consensus in the manufacturing business is that there will be a
    decline, but we don't see as drastic a decline," IRMA president
    Charles Van Horn said. "We see growth (in video and DVD), and I don't
    think it will be because there are more pipelines to feed. It will be
    consumers buying discs."


    Analysts also caution that the shift from hard copy to virtual
    distribution could be more gradual.


    "People like walking into the store and seeing the product. It's part
    of the entertainment," Barrington Research Associates analyst James
    Goss said. "The studios would be just as happy to sell something in a
    streamed form or a hard disc form. But once you download it to your
    computer, you're probably going to burn it onto a CD or DVD, so you'd
    end up with the same optical storage issues."


    The Forrester report lists a number of winners and losers from the
    expected changes.


    Among the beneficiaries are Internet portals (news - web sites) that
    enable on-demand media services, broadband suppliers such as cable and
    telcos and the creative community, which would profit from the removal
    of manufacturing and distribution costs and constraints. AOL Time
    Warner's decision to sell off its disc manufacturing plants was said
    to be proof of this trend.


    Media conglomerates could be among the losers if they do not have
    control of emerging means of distribution like VOD, Forrester said.
    Such retailers as Tower Records and Blockbuster will certainly feel
    the pain as sales and rentals shrink, though they may be able to
    sustain business by associating themselves with newer on-demand
    services. Major retailers including Wal-Mart and Best Buy are expected
    to survive by shifting CD and DVD floor space to sales of media
    devices.


    The shift could also present several opportunities for companies if
    they move quickly.


    Television companies have about three more years to release shows on
    DVD. By 2006, it is estimated that negotiations will start to focus on
    making content available on cable and Internet "basic VOD" tiers.


    Movies studios are also urged to press the development of
    Internet-based alternatives to cable VOD for movies-on-demand.


    "On-demand media services have the potential to turn pirate losses
    into gains even as they break the disc-based shackles that now hold
    back entertainment," the report concludes.
     
    matt, Sep 4, 2003
    #1
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  2. -------------------------------------------------------------

    This is assuming that in five years (or five weeks, maybe), the
    Internet hasn't been destroyed by worms and viruses.

    Steve McDonald
     
    Steve McDonald, Sep 4, 2003
    #2
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  3. matt

    Radiobyfm9 Guest

    Major retailers including Wal-Mart and Best Buy are expected
    I dunno....Sounds like they're talking about the Jetsons or something...I'll go
    get in my flying car to make some spacley sprockets by 2006.
    By the time they get the internet, cable companies, and home systems to stream
    on-demand with any kind of quality, we'll all be Hi-Def by then. Maybe by 2060
    we'll be able to plug the world in like they say...Meanwhile, I'll be in a
    retirement home on mars kickn' back about how they used to have MP3s, cassttes
    and 8-tracks.
    Slow news day in Hollywood I guess.
     
    Radiobyfm9, Sep 4, 2003
    #3
  4. matt

    Ken P. Guest

    Exactly. This type of supposition and prediction by writers who obviously
    have no technical knowledge at all has been going for a long, long while. If
    it were possible and there was money to be made, the larger media entities
    would have happily brought it to everyone's home by now. VOD is a wet dream
    to many and there are business models built around it. Of course bandwidth
    is the single most important bottleneck and, even with very serious capital
    investment (i.e. fiber to everyone's home) reliable delivery can't be
    guaranteed. I'd suggest that any writer who publishes such tripe be given a
    lesson in bandwidth restrictions by replacing their home sewage pipes with
    1/2" pipes.
     
    Ken P., Sep 4, 2003
    #4
  5. Didn't they say that of DVD too? :)
    And who has a big stake in the blue-laser technology? Sony. Aren't
    they also big-wigs in film-distribution? :)
    You could, but never as good as factory-controlled. It had more to do
    actually with the lifetime.
    Not at all. The high-end decks like Nakamichi's had terrific specs.
    Absolutely. VOD is a niche-market. I remember in my hometown was a
    company called Intercai who tried to push VOD, and they said it would
    be available pretty soon. That was the year 85 of last century! The
    only place where VOD seems to work well and is popular, is in
    first-class on long-haul flights ;-).
    I think the current systems would collapse under high load, which
    would lead to plenty of disgruntled customers, not to mention
    lawsuits. It's like when Internet started to grow, and new ISP's made
    conservative figures of growth (based on the money they could invest),
    got more customers then their gear could handle, and then their
    infrastructure collapsed. I predict the same thing for commercial
    large scale VOD ;-) (but who am I, nobody listens to me anyway, and
    those who do, don't believe me :))) ).

    cheers

    -martin-
    --
    filmmaker/DP/editor,
    Sydney, Australia

    "Today's mighty oak is just yesterday's nut that held its ground."

    SpamPal keeps my mailbox spamfree :) (http://www.spampal.org)
     
    Martin Heffels, Sep 5, 2003
    #5
  6. matt

    AnthonyR Guest

    Well, I never said VOD wouldn't catch on, in fact here in NYC, it has, we
    now have Time Warner digital cable with VOD, I can watch hit run movies on
    demand for less than it costs to go rent it from blockbuster. I can pause it
    and re-watch it for up to 24 hrs. Also all my premium channels like hbo,
    showtime and cinemax have their own On-Demand channels that I can use for
    free since I subscribe to the gold package, so I can watch any show or movie
    that I missed that month, they are all catigorized in a menu system. it
    works quite well actually and all my neighbors really love it.
    You don't worry about missing shows like "sex and the city" (big here),
    cause you can watch it later on , with VOD.

    But even with the sucess of VOD, DVD will grow and grow, that was my point.
    :)

    AnthonyR
     
    AnthonyR, Sep 5, 2003
    #6
  7. I didn't read that you said that ;-) Sorry if the tone of my text
    seemed to imply different.

    Anyway, I must have been sleeping a bit in media-land lately, because
    what you describe sounds like a good implementation of VOD. But
    compared to the rest of the world it's small scale. In Holland (where
    I used to live most of my life) many attempts to introduce VOD failed.
    Now I live in a big, modern city but no VOD. I haven't heard of plans
    to introduce it in the near future either here.
    So, as the article claims that VOD will lead to the demise of DVD is
    just blatantly ignoring the fact that there is a whole world outside
    the USA which is technologically far less advanced. That part of the
    planet will enjoy the DVD's for many more moons.
    ..
    Yes. Even if it is just for archiving homemovies.

    cheers

    -martin-
    --
    filmmaker/DP/editor,
    Sydney, Australia

    "Today's mighty oak is just yesterday's nut that held its ground."

    SpamPal keeps my mailbox spamfree :) (http://www.spampal.org)
     
    Martin Heffels, Sep 5, 2003
    #7
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