"NBF"/The Next "Big" Format - The Near Future..

Discussion in '35mm Cameras' started by Lewis Lang, Jul 12, 2003.

  1. Lewis Lang

    Lewis Lang Guest

    Its seems that roughly every 5-10? years there comes out a new consumer format
    as an "alternate" to 35mm equipment for amature use. (Not including earlier
    roll film formats) first there was 126 and then 110 followed by Disc (Ugh!) and
    half frame 35mm (both in the 60's/70's? (Olympus Pens) and the 80's (Yashica
    Smurais)) followed by APS followed by digital.

    This is not intended as a troll but mere speculation, it seems that in order to
    keep the market machine chugging along (format market saturation or not) a new
    "big" (though the big refers to popularity not necessarily the physical size of
    the format) format is introduced (OK, make that "foisted") on the public.

    Where do you see the "next big format" happening in (for amature/consumer use)
    and why?:

    - Digital (4/3 and/or some other smaller than 35mm format sensor because most
    people want 4x6" and digital will only get cheaper as time goes by so it
    doesn't matter whether they can get repairs/etc. for their cameras if new
    cameras are so cheap to get)

    - Film/other than 35mm (for/because people who are/will realise that their
    discontinued digi stuff may be unrepairable because either nobody handles the
    repairs and/or the obsolescence of batteries/software/file formats and/or some
    other reason(s))

    - Other new as yet undeveloped and/or unannounced technology(ies)

    - "Surprise! Surprise!" (best Gomer Pyle voice) - 35mm film (for quality and/or
    the more seriously minded amatures and/or those who felt they've been shafted
    by "digital obsolescence" or merely tired of the constant quick ease with which
    digital models are introduced then summarily dropped from the market and/or
    from technical support/repair).

    My "reasoning"/speculation may be off or bang on, but I can't help but feeling
    that digital is neither a fad nor a permanent fixture but will be one of many
    formats (actually media) and a transition format to the next consumer
    photographic format...?

    I'm asking about the consumer market, I doubt most PJs happy w/ digital's speed
    and/or quaity would change from digital unless something else better (or at
    least cheaper ;-)) came along.

    Regards,

    Lewis

    P.S. - Please no suggestions of holograms/holodecks and "no talking
    Orangutasn"... ;-)

    Check out my photos at "LEWISVISION":

    http://members.aol.com/Lewisvisn/home.htm

    Remove "nospam" to reply
     
    Lewis Lang, Jul 12, 2003
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  2. Lewis Lang

    Lisa Horton Guest


    I think your history is correct, as is your fundamental assumption,
    that there will always be a new big thing. But digital fundamentally
    uncouples the capture method from the storage media. To the storage
    media, it's all just bits, what those bits represent is of no concern.

    Today we use CCD and CMOS sensors to capture visual data, but who
    knows what we'll be using down the road, or even the nature of what
    it's capturing. In 20 years we may view turn of the century digital
    capture in the same way that we view early TV images today: crude,
    primitive, ugly.

    In terms of ultimate impact, I suspect that digital will be more like
    the invention of photography than like a new kind or format of film.
    Photography largely supplanted drawing and painting for consumer
    memories. Digital will largely supplant film in the consumer market,
    eventually, at least in first world countries.

    So what's the NBT? Smell-O-Vision? 3D? Harry Potter style pictures
    that move and talk?

    Lisa
     
    Lisa Horton, Jul 12, 2003
    #2
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  3. Lewis Lang

    Hickster0711 Guest

    The next big thing is here already. Deletography. Some fuzzy phone shots are
    sent, after which the receiver says: "That guy again"? and deletes the whole
    message. All that's left is the phone bill. Bob Hickey.
     
    Hickster0711, Jul 13, 2003
    #3
  4. Lewis Lang

    T P Guest

    <snip>

    Say no more. You got it first time!

    ;-)
     
    T P, Jul 13, 2003
    #4
  5. Lewis Lang

    mike II Guest


    That would be the negative..




    mike
     
    mike II, Jul 13, 2003
    #5
  6. Lewis Lang

    Alan Browne Guest


    Hi Lewis,

    APS was aimed squarely at the consumer P&Ser for holiday and family
    snaps. I would hope by now that Kodak have gotten the clue that "film
    format" innovations are not going to make them less poor than they are
    now. APS is (for what it is) a very good and advanced system. Film
    itself is not going to get so much better that an even smaller frame of
    negative would capture reasonable detail. APS, imo, is the end of the
    "new film formats"

    For "us" here in the NG, it is not that relevant anyway. A small
    percentage will wander off and do MF or LF (and some do both already).
    The rest who stick to film will stick to 35mm. If (big if) another
    format comes out (call it the Last Image Media Paradigm (LIMP)) people
    will say that it won't stand up. ;-) They will say, "Oh, the next APS!
    Here we go with another moribund format. Remember 110, remember 126,
    Remember the disc..." and they will stick to 35mm or segué to digital.

    Digital (in whatever format) will take on a lot of the P&S market; and a
    large percentage of the folks around this NG will, eventually, move to
    digital.

    Sorry for the bland answer.

    Cheers,
    Alan
     
    Alan Browne, Jul 13, 2003
    #6
  7. Lewis Lang

    NickC Guest

    What sort of grabs my attention is what photograph oriented news
    media's say about each new system that comes along. Not at any time
    has a new system been introduced without some type of enthusiastic fan
    fare.

    I wonder how many folks recall what photo magazines were saying about
    the APS system when it was being introduced. Slightly smaller negative
    that packs a great deal of information about the picture. With the
    proper automated printing equipment, this format will allow automated
    prints to be made showing picture conditions the photographer intended
    to capture. With the support of the many camera manufactures, it was
    predicted that the APS system may not necessarily replace the 35mm
    film format but that it was a system that was here to stay.

    As I recall, there were even articles about the future of APS in the
    Wall Street Journal. All the while, 35mm users were questioning why
    the 35mm neg, with new camera designs, can't do the same thing as APS
    was intended to do. That way, 35mm film can be used with both type
    camera bodies.

    Seems as though people have lost the ability to reason things out for
    themselves. They need magazines and journals to tell them what to
    think, and if things don't turn out that way, editors may say, well,
    surprise surprise, no one guaranteed things would be different.

    I guess I set no example of smarts in the making. I have a D100 and a
    C5050Z which I rarely use. I find the use of digicams to be too
    photographically confining. For a certainty, I would not entertain
    thoughts of having a system of digicams exclusively.

    Nick
     
    NickC, Jul 14, 2003
    #7
  8. Lewis Lang

    Lewis Lang Guest

    Thanks everyone for all that answered so far for your
    thoughts/suggestions/ruminations - some strange, interesting, cute and well
    thought out answers...

    I don't know if there will be any new "alternate" film formats introduced in
    film (though I have a feeling the future is full of surprises), I do get the
    feeling though that such new, yet to be "standards" such as 4/3 and others to
    follow will follow the same path as the alternate film formats have throughout
    the years - a succession of semi-successful and unsuccessful formats introduced
    for the sake of creating a market rather than finding a need of an existing
    target market and catering to that. Whether full sensor or smaller digital, or
    alternate (to 35mm) film format, I have to wonder if market people are actually
    listening or whether they are just 1/2 listening and taking "innovations" that
    could be applied to present formats just for the sake of creating a new
    format(s) (much in the same way as Nick? mentioned innovations applied to APS
    (such as magnetically encoded info as to how the film was shot used for
    printing purposes) could have equally have been applied to 35mm) rather than
    upgrading the old formats (35mm and others).

    On a side note... It all makes me wonder if innovations will be applied to
    camera and lens technology as opposed to specific formats of film/digital - I
    still wonder why so few (OEM brands, Nikon and Sigma? or do they just have the
    HSM technology and not their version of IS/VR?) have followed in Canon's
    footsteps regarding IS lenses, there's a real market there that can easily be
    filled w/o a format change. I wonder why even Canon doesn't follow its own lead
    and bring out virtually all its applicable lenses in its line out in IS.
    Certainly there's lots of room for Canon to bring out both new and older lens
    out in IS (the 24-70/2.8 and 70-210/4 could have certainly benefitted from this
    treatment as well as the 17-40/4 and so would a 24-70/4 L lens if they ever
    come out with it).

    On an oppositte yet sadder note, it makes me wonder why the lack of aperture
    rings in Nikon's G and Pentax's new J lenses should be so much of an economic
    advantage to produce and/or buy that it would be considered a useful feature. I
    guess they figure that the consumer's level of awareness and/or acceptance of
    crap (I am talking about some of the cheaper kit G/J lenses here and not so
    much about the prosumer and up apertureless lenses), as well as how much they
    can cheapen a lens/etc. is a new frontier that should be pushed (is being
    pushed by corporate bean counters). And it makes me wonder whether the
    Rebels/Maxxum 5s/Pentax *ists are meant merely as "alternate" (to AF
    rangefinder P&Ss and/or disposable cameras) point and shoot SLR toys or as
    paths to upgrade for more serious shooters in the sense that, thouhg they
    (entry level 35mm SLRs) seem to get more and more desirable features, build
    quality seems to be going down for both the bodies and the lenses (more and
    more chintzy plastic), but I guess if the only mountain/war zone a camera sees
    is the inside of the top shelf of a closet between multiple Christmas's quality
    build becomes a "luxury". Maybe my standards of even plastic are too high
    (Maxxum 600si/EOS A2(e)/5 level). I guess if you never know quality, when its
    gone, you don't miss it...

    Also, is it just me, or are entry level 35mm SLR cameras seeming to look more
    and more like cheap silvery plasticky Casio watches w/ lenses attached in
    build/design, like hi-tech toys but w/ a lot less character than their Milton
    Bradley/etc. counterparts.

    Just some ramblings/thoughts.

    Regards,

    Lewis

    Check out my photos at "LEWISVISION":

    http://members.aol.com/Lewisvisn/home.htm

    Remove "nospam" to reply
     
    Lewis Lang, Jul 14, 2003
    #8
  9. Lewis Lang

    Duncan Ross Guest

    From: (Lewis Lang)
    My money is on a 'disposable' film format optimised for scanning only. It would
    be a traditional 'analogue' film, however instead of producing an optical
    negative that can be reversed to get the image, it would produce an
    electrostatic image. It would have a much faster and simpler chemistry and the
    resulting image would be contact scanned by the processor and converted into a
    digital image layer by layer without ever being exposed to light again (so no
    fixing stage needed). The film would then be scrapped.

    Oh - and we'll all be wearing tall silver hats too.
     
    Duncan Ross, Jul 14, 2003
    #9
  10. Lewis Lang

    Lewis Lang Guest

    Subject: Re: "NBF"/The Next "Big" Format - The Near Future..
    ....except for the recently electrostatically resurrected Abraham Lincoln who
    will be wearing a tall top hat reminiscent of a Tom Petty video "Don't Come
    "Round Here No More" ;-)

    I saw an article? on this and I just don't see it happening in anyone's future
    except for the guys who would be trying to push this kind of wacky idea of no
    neg/neg scrapped. People who want a Cd (e-mailable digital images not on a disc
    too? "You've Got Pictures"?) can get that along w/ their film at time of
    processing. For those who don't want or need a neg they can shoot digital or do
    what many stupid (or at least unthinking/unaware) people have done for way too
    long - keep the pictures and throw away those nasty old negatives that add
    "clutter" to their draws and in one fell sweep eliminate their visual histories
    when one (or a bunch) of their prints get lost, or damaged beyond repair or
    stolen...

    Lewis

    P.S. - I don't like hats and silver belongs in film or in silverware... In the
    future all people will be wearing jump suits w/ the logo of the company who
    owns rights to their D.N.A. "One small step for Kodak, one giant leap for
    chromosome kind"...

    © 2003 Lewis Lang
    All Rights (and chromosomes still) Reserved

    Check out my photos at "LEWISVISION":

    http://members.aol.com/Lewisvisn/home.htm

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    Lewis Lang, Jul 14, 2003
    #10
  11. Lewis Lang

    T P Guest


    This is already in the advanced stages of development. If I recall
    correctly, a German company has been working on the technology for
    several years. It was exhibited at Photokina, Germany (the world's
    largest photo and imaging exhibition) in September 2002.

    The last I heard, Kodak had bought the German company and intended to
    accelerate development with the intention of bringing it to market.
     
    T P, Jul 15, 2003
    #11
  12. Lewis Lang

    Duncan Ross Guest

    From: (Lewis Lang)

    Heh, I didn't say it would be a good thing, just a typical thing judging by how
    modern markets develop. I'm quite amazed that it is actually happening thought,
    I must be getting less extreme in my views!
     
    Duncan Ross, Jul 15, 2003
    #12
  13. Lewis Lang

    Hickster0711 Guest

    I must be missing something here, but where's the gain? No negs. no pictures?
    just digital images? What's the point? Bob Hickey
     
    Hickster0711, Jul 15, 2003
    #13
  14. Lewis Lang

    T P Guest


    I don't think you've missed the point at all, Bob. I was merely
    presenting the information, not commenting on it!

    My comment would be "Why?", so it would appear we agree.

    ;-)
     
    T P, Jul 15, 2003
    #14
  15. Lewis Lang

    Lewis Lang Guest

    Subject: Re: "NBF"/The Next "Big" Format - The Near Future..
    LOL :)

    Regards,

    Lewis

    Check out my photos at "LEWISVISION":

    http://members.aol.com/Lewisvisn/home.htm

    Remove "nospam" to reply
     
    Lewis Lang, Jul 15, 2003
    #15
  16. Lewis Lang

    Lew Guest

    My guess is 3D, either film or digital. Not the two image type, but
    holographic.

    --
    Lewie
    See http://lewbar.tripod.com for description
    and pictures of our travels
     
    Lew, Jul 16, 2003
    #16
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